STRATEGIC CROSSROADS
UPDATE – Berlin, January 25 – Germany will send 14 of its modern Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Firstly, this is part of a cooordinated push with the U. S. and NATO to increase support for Kyivin advance of an anticipated Russian offensive. Moreover, the announcement follows days of intense diplomacy. Furthermore, the U. S. is expected to announce the deployment of 50 Abrams M1 battle tanks for Ukraine. In addition to pledging German tanks, Berlin said other countries would provide German-made tanks out of their own stocks as part of a broad coalition to boost Kyiv’s armed forces. The goal would be to quickly put together two tank battalions’ worth of Leopard 2 tanks, with the initial battalion arriving in Ukraine within three months. Two battalions typically comprise close to 100 tanks.
NATO is hesitating to supply Ukraine with all the tools they need to expel the despotic Vladimir Putin’s Russian aggressors and reclaim Ukraine’s national sovereignty. Putin is prolonging his criminal attempt to recreate the Soviet Empire by grinding his war into a cruel stalemate. He thus seeks to rescue his failures by outlasting Ukraine’s NATO allies’ will to endure. But NATO, including America, can prevent Putin’s scorched earth strategy, by simply allowing Ukraine to win the war. As we approach the first anniversary of Putin’s illegal and unnecessary invasion, NATO, led by America, has arrived at a strategic crossroads. Moreover, defiant and resilient Ukraine has fought a gallant fight. However, though they have liberated much of their nation and humiliated Putin, the tyrant is not quitting. Consequently, he resorts to a Hitler-like blitz of indiscriminate ballistic missile attacks on civilians to break Ukrainian resolve before American Patriot missile defense systems arrive.
PUTIN DOUBLES DOWN
As dithering Western intellectuals and politicians weigh their options, some argue for a status-quo “peace” that leaves Putin with puppet eastern Ukrainian “provinces” and previously captured Crimea. Likewise, Putin ruthlessly sees this as his “triumph;” that is, if he can’t have all of Ukraine now, he will settle for part of it, declare “victory,” and wait to inevitably gobble up the rest of it. Meanwhile, he continues to mercilessly murder the people he dishonestly seeks to “set free from Nazis.” However, western military and intelligence sources warn that Russia may be preparing to conduct a decisive counteroffensive in the spring to overrun all of eastern Ukraine. At the same time, Russia is nudging Belarus to assist with a renewed northern front to divide Ukraine’s forces. And Putin is doubling down on buying all the drones, arms and resources he can muster from his enabling comrades in Iran and China.
MOMENT OF TRUTH
Which brings us to NATO’s moment of truth. Kyiv needs more and better arms to survive and prevail. Led by the courageous Volodymir Zelinsky, Ukraine clearly has the will to fight. At this critical juncture, battle tanks are the issue. Germany will not provide Leopard tanks unless America sends Abrams tanks. And Berlin is reluctant to allow willing NATO allies, including Poland, to ship German-built Leopards to Ukraine. Britain has offered 14 Challenger tanks. But NATO has over 2,000 Leopards in service. Meanwhile, Ukraine needs perhaps 100 of them. The U. S. Marine Corps has just retired their tank battalions, which frees up 400 of America’s 4,800 Abrams tanks. What’s the delay? Because the Biden Administration will not release the tanks, or upgraded tactical missile systems, either. Moreover, Washington’s reluctance is puzzling. President Joseph Biden is quick to offer rhetorical and belated material support — but not decisive assistance.
A CLEAR CHOICE
To subdue Ukraine, Putin has been willing to commit war crimes, annihilate Ukrainian cities and resort to nuclear blackmail. A hesitant Biden apparently fears that the war will escalate if Putin continues to lose ground. Therefore, although the depraved Putin is capable of anything, it is illogical and immoral to offer Ukraine only enough weapons to prolong agony and deny victory. But America and NATO have a clear choice: effectively and rapidly arm Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow feels free to strike Ukrainian cities with impunity, but arrogantly asserts Russian territory is untouchable. Thus, Putin concentrates and supplies forces in eastern Ukraine without having to defend depots and supply lines. This impunity must end. If Putin unleashes tactical nuclear weapons, his dreams of a new USSR — let alone today’s Russia — are doomed. Even so, an ugly war of attrition puts Putin in a position to outlast European and American resolve.
AMERICAN NATIONAL INTEREST
In Washington, Biden must be decisive before a stalemate undermines American support. Republican and Democratic senators will ensure continued aid to Ukraine. However, is Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy willing to face down America First Isolationists? Following World War II, Sen. Arthur Vandenberg led Republicans beyond isolationism. Moreover, he joined with President Harry Truman to forge a bipartisan alliance against Soviet expansionism that endured until the collapse of communism. It wasn’t cheap, but this investment defined American exceptionalism. Consequently, faced with resurgent Russian aggression, will Speaker McCarthy likewise step forward to protect American national security? He should not allow legitimate budget concern, multiple Biden inquiries or opposition to Biden domestic policies roadblock decisive assistance to Ukraine. In conclusion, America and Europe must not let Putin succeed, and NATO must ship not only the battle tanks but upgraded missile systems. American national interest is that Ukraine prevails, despite either a cautious Biden or the isolationists.
Dennis M. Spragg is the author of America Ascendant, the Rise of American Exceptionalism, Glenn Miller Declassified and the forthcoming America and Britain, the Essential Alliance. Among related essays are Putin at the Abyss, Defiant Ukraine, Cold War II, Ameria Adrift, American Renewal, the Biden Doctrine, The Gorbachev Legacy, Benedict XVI and NATO Reborn.