HISTORIC CROSSROADS
America and China have reached an historic crossroads that requires reason but resolve. Consequently, America must confront ideological, economic, military, and pandemic challenges with ardent integrity. Furthermore, the future of enlightened civilization is at risk. Moreover, the ability of America to revive and lead strategic alliances to engage an assertive People’s Republic of China is paramount. Otherwise, the world may be destined for subservience to a restored Middle Kingdom directed not by Kublai Khan but the ambitious Xi Jinping and the amoral Communist Party of China. Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Belt and Road initiative, COVID-19, the South China Sea, Korea, intellectual property theft, hoarding of earth minerals, climate, environmental mismanagement and a return to Mao’s socialist vision are among the critical issues before the world’s foremost competitors. In the wake of the Afghanistan debacle, the Biden administration must reestablish constructive but steadfast multilateral American leadership to counter China.
TIPPING POINT
American allies led by Germany’s outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel believe that Chinese world dominance is inevitable, and that America has become unreliable. Notwithstanding Ms. Merkel’s evident fascination, China’s ability to surpass or subordinate America is limited by its outdated political system and complicated economic reality. During the Cold War, America and NATO tended to overestimate the Soviet Union. Likewise, it is possible that the democracies today overrate the PRC. Meanwhile, some specialists note that China not necessarily poised to overtake America, but rather, the Chinese Communist Party may be at risk of collapse. Furthermore, while America and China are at a crossroads, China itself is at a tipping point. Hence, Chairman Xi’s decisions to accelerate military hegemony and economic colonization abroad. But the PRC has also taken advantage of racial tension to undermine America. Therefore, Chinese leaders enthusiastically demean America by parroting “woke” rhetoric and critical race theory.
CHINESE VULNERABILITY
As evidenced by the impending collapse of the giant property developer China Evergrande Group, the PRC has vulnerabilities. On a current dollar basis, China’s GDP remains about 72% of America’s GDP, even including Hong Kong. During the Cold War, many experts believed the Soviet Union would overtake America. But in highlighting apparently efficient authoritarian systems, they did not comprehend the shortcomings of planned economies or the criminal realities of socialist regimes. Following rapprochement with America, the pragmatic if visionary Deng Xiaoping understood that the Communist Party could harness market forces to perpetuate their own power, but the CCP must never relax their political grip. Likewise, Xi Jinping and his economists learned lessons from the 2008 American financial collapse. However, China has built its energetic economy upon a massive real-estate bubble financed by an unsustainable mountain of debt. Furthermore, China must feed, house, and employ its 1.5 billion people.
REALISM AND RESOLVE
Meanwhile, the PRC is waging an asymmetrical battle of nerves against America. Furthermore, this deliberately diverts attention and conceals China’s internal issues. Chinese ambition and paranoia manifest themselves through intimidation and subversion. Breaking the Hong Kong agreement, a massive military buildup, threatening Taiwan and colonizing the South China Sea is intimidation. Encouraging racial division by encouraging purported social justice movements and directing deadly fentanyl across an open southern border to divide and poison America is subversion. Whether a lab accident or a bioweapons design, the global COVID-19 epidemic underscores callous Chinese dishonesty and evasion. The World Health Organization has behaved as China’s puppet. America and the world must demand the truth, even as western media and politicians continue to facilitate and deny the Wuhan reality. America’s leaders must be realistic and resolved to convince a provocative China to conduct itself as a responsible world leader.
HUAWEI AND HUNTER
However, Xi emphasizes a return to Marxist-Leninist values, rejecting “capitalism with Chinese characteristics” to reign in China’s entrepreneurial elite. Predictions of a Chinese world economic conquest appear premature. Therefore, the Biden Administration has sought engagement. The release of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the problematic Huawei Technologies, is a case in point. The Trump Administration suspected that Beijing is using the world’s leading 5G network provider’s equipment for espionage. An American grand jury indicted the daughter of Huawei’s founder with stealing trade secrets, obstructing a criminal investigation and helping Iran to avoid U. S. sanctions. But to improve relations, President Joseph Biden dropped the Wanzhou case. Consequently, critics see this as evidence son Hunter Biden’s controversial business entanglements with Beijing fundamentally compromise his father. There are perhaps more prudent ways to counter China, whether Mr. Biden is inclined to be conciliatory or not.
ENGAGEMENT VS. WITHDRAWAL
In February 2017, President Donald Trump announced America’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in favor of unilateral Asia-Pacific trade relationships. Firstly, this was a repudiation of the post-World War II multilateral world economic order developed by the United States. Moreover, it was a surreal juxtaposition of protectionist sentiments shared by Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders. Likewise, Mr. Trump walked away from an opportunity to lead a formidable economic alliance that would effectively compete with China. His decision symbolized American withdrawal and Chinese ascendency. TPP survived because Japan decided to proceed without America. China has ingeniously applied to join and co-opt the group of nations that have gone ahead without America, now known as the CPTPP. Beijing is the principal trading partner of many Indo-Pacific nations. America’s ability to counter China and influence Indo-Pacific economic, climate and military outcomes will be determined by the degree and effectiveness of engagement rather than withdrawal.
THE NIXON-ZHOU LEGACY
Following through on the 1972 rapprochement brilliantly envisioned by American President Richard Nixon and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, Premier Deng Xiaoping catapulted China toward growth and an open economy. Therefore, he created vast opportunities for China and its people, as well as America and China’s other trading partners. As Xi turns backward, bold American leadership is imperative. The Chinese people benefit not from saber-rattling but positive engagement with the American liberal world economic system. Furthermore, Chinese ambition and strategy, including Taiwan, are constrained by a muscular American economic and military presence. Democrats and Republicans must therefore courageously transcend the anxiety of economic change at home to reimagine the traditional and successful American liberal world economic system. Mr. Trump formed a four-power economic pact with Australia, India, and Japan. Mr. Biden has followed-up with his military agreement with Australia and Britain. It is time to revisit the CPTPP.
INDO-PACIFIC COMMITMENT
Although Mr. Trump walked away and Mr. Biden opposes CPTPP without renegotiation, America would do well to join the pact. Fundamentally, the strategic environment is different than 2017. Firstly, the trade environment and many issues have changed. Therefore, America should recommit – now – to a rechristened the Indo-Pacific Economic Agreement. China has not helped its case with nervous neighbors by bullying Australia, threatening Taiwan, militarizing the South China Sea, colonizing the Solomon Islands, and foreclosing democratic Hong Kong. But Mr. Biden has complicated matters by his inexplicable Afghanistan debacle. However, his government and American congressional leaders of both parties need to assert a rational and robust American economic, environmental and military commitment to the Indo-Pacific, which is of vital national interest. Building a robust and rejuvenated multilateral architecture is the best antidote to prevent miscalculation by Beijing.
Dennis M. Spragg is the author of America Ascendant, the Rise of American Exceptionalism and Glenn Miller Declassified. His forthcoming book is America and Britain, the Essential Alliance. Recent and related commentaries include Nixon to China at 50, Guadalcanal – Then and Now, American Leadership – Beyond Afghanistan and The Biden Doctrine – A Dangerous and Defining Moment.